Campaign Candor 6-7 By Wesley Little
By Jon Busdeker on Jun. 07, 2007
The past few months have seen an incredible amount of turmoil in the 2008 presidential nominating schedule.
Many states, unsatisfied with their usual position at the end of the presidential nominating calendar, have led a charge toward scheduling their primaries in early February, frontloading the nominating process as never before.
A shocking 23 states, including the three most populous states in the nation, have decided to host their elections on Feb. 5, a day many have dubbed “Super-Duper Tuesday.” This situation was complicated even further by the recent news that Florida, the nation’s fourth largest state, will hold its presidential primary on Jan. 29, only a week after the New Hampshire primary. Here, I will show you the details of the current primary schedule and analyze what kind of effect each primary will have on the race for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.
Iowa, Jan. 14: The Iowa Caucuses will seek to withstand this barrage of early primary states and retain its position as the nation’s first “litmus test” of presidential candidates. This state’s rural composition and small size favor candidates who can perform equally well in front of a group of 10 in a living room as they can in a gym packed full of people. Iowa could give a lift to the campaigns of presidential campaign veterans John Edwards and John McCain, both of whom currently lead their respective fields in Iowa.
Nevada, Jan. 19: A new entrant into this early group of state elections, the Nevada caucuses will represent the preferences of a diverse and growing western state. Expect fellow westerners New Mexico Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson and Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain to campaign extensively in this state.
New Hampshire, Jan. 22: New Hampshire, threatened by Florida and Nevada’s early dates, is considering moving its primary to an earlier date in 2008 or even to December. From all indications, it looks as if the focus is on Jan. 8. With this early primary date, I would expect New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani to put most of their resources into winning New Hampshire and establishing an aura of invincibility around their front-running campaigns.
Florida, Jan. 29: Florida’s announcement that its primary would be held on this early date has complicated the presidential nominating process tremendously. In contrast to the small, homogeneously populated states like Iowa and New Hampshire that have traditionally dominated the presidential nominating process, Florida is an ethnically diverse state of 15 million people. All of the campaigns will put a tremendous amount of focus on Florida, as the winner will gain a tremendous amount of momentum going into the Feb. 5 super primary.
South Carolina, Jan. 29 (Democrat), Feb. 2 (Republican): Determined to stay “first in the South” despite Florida’s decision, South Carolina Republican and Democratic Party leaders could move their primaries up to an earlier date, possibly New Hampshire’s old position on Jan. 22 if New Hampshire decides to move. Whatever its date, South Carolina’s primary will be a prime target for Democrats John Edwards and Barack Obama and Republican Fred Thompson.
Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5: With an amazing 23 states representing nearly 60 percent of the U.S. population voting on this one day, Feb. 5 is the closest thing the American presidential nominating system has ever had to a “National Primary.” Political experts are still divided in their analysis of the impact these multiple elections will have on the selection of each party’s nominee. However, it seems clear that candidates will need both significant momentum and money to compete in heavily populated states with expensive television and radio airtime like California, New York, Texas and Illinois. These states, once just a source for plentiful campaign donations, will now have a large say in deciding each party’s nominee for president. If a stalemate emerges from these states, however, the election could be settled on Feb. 12, when both Maryland and Virginia hold their primaries.
The 2008 primary season is already shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested and expensive periods of elections in American history. With both parties boasting a number of qualified candidates and record fundraising, there is sure to be quite a bit of political excitement in the next eight months. I’ll keep you updated on this race and the changes in the calendars for each party and appreciate all of your comments and questions.
Little can be contacted at , or you can respond to his column on http://www.the-burg.com.
COMMENTS
Well I would like to comment and just put my two cents in, I suppose. I think that the burg should enhance the local races in our district as well, in the 6th district primarily,I actually am representing a canidate who is running for the 6th congressional seat. I think that if young people are aware that the members we vote in locally represent us in the electoral vote then maybe they would actually take an interest in politics more...I see that young people are always, constantly saying my vote does not matter...But they need to be aware, our community needs to bring the younger generation together to at least take a look at political issues for themselves, not neccassarily always what thier parents believe...The Baby boomers are moving out and this is generation X we are looking at now as our future leaders.
Thanks!
KH